NHS Kent & Medway · Population frailty intelligence

Finding frailty before
the system has to respond.

Assistiv Systems builds a five-layer population intelligence pathway for the NHS — from geographic risk mapping to community screening and clinical referral. Identifying older adults at risk before crisis, not after.

1,917 Falls admissions 65+ / 100k
543 Hip fractures 65+ / 100k
129.4 Antidepressants / 1,000 pts
62.3% Dementia diagnosis rate †
The challenge

Millions of older adults
are invisible to the NHS.

01

The Missing Middle

A population of older adults too frail to be fully safe at home, but not yet eligible for formal NHS or social care support. One fall, one infection, or one carer breakdown from an avoidable acute admission.

02

The Identification Gap

The NHS frailty system is reactive. People appear in it when they arrive at A&E, or when crisis has already happened. Proactive community identification of frailty risk, before the system has to respond, barely exists at scale anywhere in the country.

03

The Human Cost

For every older adult who loses their independence to an avoidable crisis, there is a family under strain, a carer invisible to health services, and a preventive opportunity that passed without anyone seeing it. Assistiv is designed to see it.

The system

Five layers.
One proactive pathway.

Each layer feeds the next — from public data ingestion through geographic risk mapping, community identification, precision screening, and clinical triage. The dataset becomes the competitive advantage as the system learns from every interaction.

L1
Population Signal Ingestion ONS Census 2021, NHS Fingertips (10 indicators confirmed), IMD 2019, CQC register, NHSBSA English Prescribing Dataset (7 signal groups, practice level). 17 signals total.
● Active
L2
Frailty Geography Intelligence Composite FEP scoring across 13 Kent & Medway districts. Geographic heat map with ONS boundaries. One-click commissioner briefing PDF export. ICB-grounded in real NHS data.
● Prototype Open ↗
L3
Community Touchpoint Identification Routes outreach to GP surgeries, pharmacies, libraries, faith communities, and VCSE organisations within priority zones. Google Places API integration.
Phase 2
L4
Precision Community Screening — RESILIENCE Voice-first PRISMA-7 screening, carer observational report, Triple Tap Intelligence. FEP score context-injected at session start to calibrate sensitivity thresholds.
● Live Open ↗
L5
Triage, Referral & Feedback Loop Clinical referral routing, population dashboard, safety escalation. Anonymised outcomes recalibrate the FEP model — the dataset becomes the competitive advantage.
Phase 3
Interactive explainer
See the full pathway animated — from data signals to feedback loop
Five stages, non-technical, designed for commissioner briefings
Watch ▶
System architecture

Five layers, end to end.
How it actually works.

Full architecture document ↗

Each layer is a distinct intelligence agent with its own data inputs, logic, and outputs — feeding the next in a closed loop. Layer 2 and Layer 4 are live prototypes. Layers 3 and 5 are designed and sequenced for Phase 2 and 3 development. The feedback loop from Layer 5 back to Layer 2 is the system's long-term competitive advantage.

L1 — Population Signal Ingestion ● Active
ONS Census 2021
Over-75s living alone. LSOA granularity (~1,500 households)
Public · Free
NHS Fingertips
Falls, unplanned admissions, frailty prevalence by ICB and PCN
API · Free
IMD 2019
Deprivation index. Strong frailty proxy. Ward and LSOA level
Public · Free
NHSBSA EPD
7 prescribing signal groups at practice level. 18M rows/month
API · Free
DWP Benefits Data
Attendance Allowance and PIP claims by postcode district
Public · Free
CQC Register
Care home locations, capacity, ratings. Service gap indicator
API · Free
⚠ Linkage challenge: datasets use different geographic units (LSOA, ward, PCN, postcode sector). All must be mapped to a common spatial index before scoring. 14 real signals confirmed; 3 synthetic pending MSOA Fingertips linkage in Phase 2.
scored & weighted
L2 — Composite FEP Scoring · Frailty Geography Intelligence ● Prototype live
Agent logic — scoring pipeline
Step 01
Normalise Geography
Map all inputs to district. ONS lookup tables for PCN → ward → LSOA crosswalk. MSOA linkage in Phase 2.
Step 02
Weight & Score
17 domain-informed weights: age alone (13%), falls (12%), hip fractures (9%), deprivation (8%), winter mortality (8%).
Step 03
Composite FEP Index
Frailty Emergence Probability score per district on 0–100 scale. 50 = England average.
Step 04
Service Gap Overlay
Cross-reference CQC capacity. High FEP + low care provision = priority zones for outreach.
Step 05
Change Detection
Notebook reruns quarterly. Flags districts with rising FEP score — early trajectory signal.
Step 06
Uncertainty Flag
Marks zones where fewer than 8 signals are available. Prevents false precision in commissioner reports.
Output: ranked heat map of districts by FEP score. One-click PDF commissioner briefing. Exportable as GeoJSON, CSV, or direct context feed to Layer 4 screening sessions.
priority zones
L3 — Community Touchpoint Identification Phase 2
GP Surgeries
PCN-funded proactive outreach duty for over-75s. Anchor point.
PCN Contract
Pharmacies
High-frequency contact. Polypharmacy patients already identified.
Community
Libraries
Trusted civic space. Digital access. Often run wellbeing sessions.
LA Partnership
Faith Communities
Older demographic concentration. High trust. Lunch clubs, coffee mornings.
Voluntary Sector
Food Banks / VCSE
Reaches under-served populations. IMD-correlated. High-need intersection.
VCSE
Domiciliary Care
Carers already in homes. Natural facilitated screening opportunity.
Assistiv Network
Agent maps touchpoints within priority zones using Google Places API and LA open data. Outputs a ranked outreach plan — which venues, in which order, with estimated population reach per venue.
FEP context injected
L4 — Precision Community Screening · RESILIENCE ● Live at resiliencetools.xyz
Voice-First Screener
PRISMA-7 + FRAIL Scale. Self-administered or facilitated. Gives before it asks.
Live
Carer Observational
Completed by carer, family member, or pharmacist. Independent parallel signal.
Live
Triple Tap Intelligence
Synthesises self-report + carer + population signal into unified frailty profile.
Core IP
Frailty Profile Radar
Six-spoke visual output. Shareable with GP, family, or care coordinator.
Live
Three-Layer Consent
Granular, revocable. Person controls what is shared and with whom.
Clinical Design
Pattern Safety Interrupts
Detects minimisation. Routes to safety pathway if crisis indicators present.
Clinical Design
Context injection: each screening session receives the district FEP score. The agent calibrates sensitivity thresholds accordingly — higher-risk zones trigger lower referral thresholds. Higher-risk zones find more frailty because they look harder for it.
referral + feedback
L5 — Triage, Referral & Feedback Loop Phase 3
🏥
Clinical Referral
GP / geriatric service referral with Frailty Profile Radar attached.
📊
Population Dashboard
ICB commissioner view. Aggregate trends, screening uptake, referral rates.
🔁
FEP Score Feedback
Anonymised outcomes recalibrate Layer 2. The dataset becomes the moat.
📍
Outreach Efficacy
Which touchpoints yielded highest screening uptake. Informs next cycle.
⚠️
Safety Escalation
Immediate routing to social care or crisis team where pattern interrupts fire.
🏠
Assistiv Onboarding
High-need individuals routed into graduated support and monitoring pathway.

Strategic positioning

PCN Statutory DutyPCNs must proactively identify and support their over-75 population. This architecture gives them the geographic intelligence layer they currently lack, plus the screening pathway to act on it — within their funded duty.
IP BoundaryData sources are public and free. The value — and the IP — is in the FEP composite algorithm, the Layer 2→3 routing logic, and the Triple Tap synthesis. Each is defensible and not replicable from the inputs alone.
Feedback Loop = MoatEvery screening outcome anonymously recalibrates the FEP model. Over time, Assistiv's scoring outperforms generic deprivation proxies. The dataset is the competitive advantage — and it grows with every deployment.
Standalone Commissioner ProductLayer 2 composite scoring and the geographic heat map are a standalone commissioner-facing product — demonstrable without Layer 4 being connected. The full pathway is the vision; the map is the door.
Layer 2 · Frailty Geography Intelligence

Where is the risk?
Find it before it presents.

The Frailty Emergence Probability model generates a composite risk score for each of Kent & Medway's 13 districts. Seventeen signals — falls rates, prescribing data, deprivation, isolation, winter mortality — normalised to a common scale and weighted by clinical significance.

A score of 65 means that district is substantially more at-risk than the England average across multiple measures simultaneously. The map routes preventive investment to where it will have the greatest effect.

When a UKHSA/Met Office Heat-Health or Cold-Health Alert is active for South East England, FEP scores for high-risk districts are uplifted and medication risk signals — anticholinergics, diuretics, hypnotics — are flagged for elevated clinical sensitivity. The same alert status is injected into RESILIENCE screening sessions in Layer 4.

† Dementia diagnosis rate below England average indicates unmet diagnostic need — not better performance.

Signal weights — top 8 of 17
Over-75s living alone
13%
Falls admissions 65+
12%
Hip fracture rate 65+
9%
Deprivation (IMD)
8%
Winter mortality index
8%
Care home gap
7%
Loneliness rate
6%
Dementia diagnosis rate
6%
Current FEP scores — Kent & Medway ICB · QKS
Thanet63High
Folkestone & Hythe57High
Dover57High
Swale54Moderate
Medway54Moderate
Gravesham53Moderate
Sevenoaks38Low
Tunbridge Wells34Low
Layer 4 · RESILIENCE Community Screening

A conversation,
not a form.

RESILIENCE asks older adults about their everyday life in a voice-first interface powered by Claude Sonnet. It listens not just to what is said, but to how it is said — detecting hesitation, minimisation, and the fears that prevent honest disclosure. From one conversation: a Wellness Guide for the person, a clinical referral for the frailty team, and a population intelligence signal for commissioners.

Triple Tap Intelligence — the synthesis layer

When person self-report, carer observation, and CGA clinical assessment are overlaid on a single radar, three independent perspectives confirm or challenge each other. Convergence is confidence. Divergence is the signal — and almost always indicates that the person is understating genuine difficulty in ways that neither source alone could detect.

Design principles

Responsible AI,
by design — not compliance.

01

Give before you ask

Every person receives a personalised Wellness Guide regardless of what they choose to share with clinical services. The guide belongs to them. Reciprocal value before any request for data.

02

You are the author

Nothing happens without the person's permission. Every consent layer is granular, revocable, and explained in plain language. A person can receive their Wellness Guide and share nothing further — that is entirely their choice.

03

Everyone wants the same thing

The older person, the carer, and the clinical team all want the same outcome: safe, well, and at home on the person's own terms. Assistiv closes the information gap between them without creating new asymmetries.

04

AI under human control

Claude Sonnet interprets spoken responses within a tightly defined clinical framework. The system learns through co-development with geriatricians and frailty practitioners — not independently. Every instruction set is validated with clinical expertise.

Evidence base

Built on validated
clinical frameworks.

PRISMA-7

British Geriatrics Society self-screening frailty identification instrument, embedded invisibly across the twelve screening questions and scored in real time.

FRAIL Scale

Fatigue, Resistance, Ambulation, Illness, and Loss of weight domains mapped across Physical Function, Nutrition, and Medical Burden question categories.

BGS Fit for Frailty

British Geriatrics Society framework informing question categories, clinical domain structure, and referral routing throughout the tool suite.

NHS RightCare Frailty

NHS RightCare Frailty Pathway informing clinical triage logic, referral routing, and priority weighting within the Clinical Referral tool.

FINGER Trial

Finnish multidomain intervention evidence underpinning the Wellness Guide structure — lifestyle, nutrition, cognitive activity, and social engagement domains.

Zhang et al., 2025

Peer-reviewed ML study in Geriatric Nursing identifying self-reported pain, depression, and functional ability as the strongest frailty predictors — directly validating a conversational, voice-first approach over standardised forms.

All geographic signals drawn from public NHS sources: NHS Fingertips / OHID PHOF · NHSBSA EPD (practice level, Mar 2026) · ONS Census 2021 · IMD 2019 · CQC Register · DWP Attendance Allowance

For whom

Built for everyone
in the pathway.

NHS commissioners & ICB system leaders

Population intelligence
you can act on immediately.

  • Geographic FEP risk scores across all 13 Kent & Medway districts, grounded in 17 real NHS signals and refreshed quarterly
  • One-click PDF commissioner briefing — ready for a PCN meeting or ICB commissioning conversation
  • Commissioner-configurable signal weighting — adjust the model to reflect local priorities: deprivation, polypharmacy, or isolation
  • Population screening intelligence from Layer 4, feeding ward-level referral demand forecasting in Phase 3
  • End-to-end pathway from geographic identification to clinical triage — reducing reactive A&E frailty demand
Request a commissioner briefing →
Geriatricians, frailty nurses & clinical researchers

Co-develop the clinical
layer with us.

  • Working prototype grounded in PRISMA-7, FRAIL Scale, BGS Fit for Frailty, and NHS RightCare — ready for clinical scrutiny and formal co-development
  • The screening question architecture and AI instruction set will be validated and refined in direct partnership with geriatric specialists
  • The Triple Tap divergence-as-signal hypothesis needs clinical testing at scale — your expertise shapes the model
  • Opportunity to influence how AI-assisted frailty identification works in an NHS community context
  • Authorship and acknowledgement in any published outputs from the co-development programme
Offer clinical expertise →
Get in touch

Let's build this
together.

Assistiv Systems is a working prototype developed in response to a real clinical need. The next stage is formal partnership — with NHS commissioners, ICBs, and clinical practitioners at the cutting edge of delivering support to this population.

Whether you want to explore a pilot, offer clinical expertise, or understand what the system does, we would welcome the conversation.

Based inFaversham, Kent · NHS Kent & Medway ICB footprint
System architecture document
View architecture ↗